Auckland, North Shore & East Coast Bays Property Market Update — March 2026

March delivered Auckland's strongest trading month in five years. Barfoot & Thompson sold 1,262 homes — the most in any single month since March 2021 — and the median price rebounded sharply from February's dip to $1,030,000.

On the North Shore, 401 sales at a median of $1,260,000 told a similar story. Buyers are transacting.

But here's what the headlines don't tell you: March's numbers were captured before the full weight of the Middle East conflict landed on the New Zealand economy. The data paints a picture of a market that was finding its rhythm — just as the global rules started to change.

Understanding what March's numbers actually mean, and what's coming next, is the difference between making a smart move and a reactive one. Let's break it down.

The Bigger Picture: Why This Isn't Just Another Oil Shock

Before we get to the local data, we need to talk about the elephant in the room — because it's going to shape every property decision made in New Zealand for the rest of 2026.

The US-Israel conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. The International Energy Agency has called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. That's not hyperbole. Oil prices have surged past US$100 per barrel and have touched as high as US$166 for Dubai crude. Petrol prices in New Zealand have jumped over 37% since the crisis began. Diesel has more than doubled.

Why does this matter for property? Three reasons.

First, inflation is back. The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% on 8 April, but their tone was unmistakably hawkish. They're forecasting inflation at 3.0% for the March quarter and 4.2% by June — well above their 1–3% target band. Some bank economists are projecting it could hit 4.5% by mid-year. That changes the interest rate outlook entirely.

Second, the era of falling mortgage rates is over — at least for now. Six months ago, borrowers were celebrating 5.4% one-year fixed rates and expecting further drops. Today, fixed rates have already risen by around 20 basis points, and the market is now pricing in OCR hikes from September. ASB expects the OCR to reach 3.25% by mid-2027. Infometrics is forecasting as high as 4.5% by early 2028. The tailwind that was pushing buyers into the market has, at a minimum, paused — and may reverse.

Third, confidence matters. Buyers I'm speaking to on the ground are aware of the international situation. They're not running for the exits — they're still willing to transact when the right property comes up — but they're more considered. They're doing more homework, asking tougher questions, and expecting sharper pricing. This is a market that rewards preparation and punishes wishful thinking.

The important thing to understand is that March's data pre-dates the worst of this. The conflict escalated at the end of February, but the full effect on petrol prices, consumer sentiment, and mortgage rates was still building through March. The numbers you're about to see reflect a market that was performing well before the storm hit — and that underlying strength matters for what comes next.

Auckland — The Barfoot & Thompson Numbers

Barfoot & Thompson handle around a third of all Auckland residential sales, making their monthly data the most useful real-time read on the market.

Measure	March 2026	Context
Homes sold	1,262	Strongest month since March 2021
Median selling price	$1,030,000	Highest since March 2024
Average selling price	$1,176,572	Highest since November 2025
New listings	~1,970	Down marginally on last year
Total stock for sale	6,307	16-year high — buyers have choice

The volume recovery is real. Selling 1,262 homes in a single month — with 103 sales above $2 million for the first time since March 2022 — confirms there is genuine depth in the buyer pool. The median bouncing from $904,000 in February to $1,030,000 in March tells you that February's soft figure was about the mix of what sold, not a market in retreat.

But the stock number is the one I keep coming back to. 6,307 properties on the books is a 16-year high. Buyers have never had more choice, and that dynamic keeps pricing honest. If you're selling, you're competing for attention — and that means presentation, pricing strategy, and marketing execution are non-negotiable.

Auckland — REINZ Data

REINZ captures the full market across all agencies and gives us the broader view.

Measure	March 2026	Context
Auckland median price	$1,040,000	Flat year-on-year
Auckland HPI (YoY)	–1.2%	Modest softening but stabilising
Auckland HPI (MoM)	–0.5%	Month-on-month tick down
National median	$795,000 (Feb)	Broadly stable
National HPI (YoY)	+0.2%	Essentially flat nationally
New listings (national)	12,055	Up just 0.2% on last year
National inventory	37,638	Up 2.1% — no flood of new sellers

The HPI — which adjusts for the mix of properties sold and gives a cleaner read on underlying value — shows Auckland prices essentially flat, having largely reversed the soft patch through the second half of 2025. Nationally, the picture is similar: stable, not surging, not falling.

Crucially, new listings barely moved year-on-year. Despite everything happening globally, sellers haven't panicked and flooded the market with stock. That's a sign of maturity — and it means the supply-demand balance, while favouring buyers, isn't wildly out of kilter.

North Shore property market update — what March 2026 tells us

This is where the numbers get personal. The North Shore recorded 401 sales in March at a median of $1,260,000.

Measure	March 2026	vs March 2025
Sales	401	407 (–1.5%)
Median price	$1,260,000	$1,220,000 (+3.3%)
Days to sell	42	42 (unchanged)
Total sales volume	$557.7M	$571.3M (–2.4%)

Here's what stands out.

The median price is up 3.3% year-on-year — the first positive YoY movement since November 2025 and a meaningful recovery from February's $1,197,000. Sales volume is essentially stable at 401 (versus 407 in March 2025), and days to sell held steady at 42. This is a market that is transacting at a consistent pace, with pricing gently firming.

Month-on-month, the jump from $1,197,000 to $1,260,000 (+5.2%) confirms that February's softness was seasonal and compositional — as it usually is. The underlying momentum through autumn is solid.

Looking at the 12-month rolling picture, the North Shore median has traded in a band between $1,110,000 (January's holiday low) and $1,290,000 (November's spring peak). The rolling average sits at approximately $1,191,000 — consistent with a market that has stabilised after the correction from 2021–2022 peaks.

North Shore — Last 12 Months

Month	Median Price	YoY Change	Sales	Days to Sell
Apr 2025	$1,135,000	–7.7%	348	37
May 2025	$1,175,000	–2.5%	346	48
Jun 2025	$1,179,000	–1.7%	296	49
Jul 2025	$1,150,000	–5.0%	321	47
Aug 2025	$1,165,000	+1.7%	310	44
Sep 2025	$1,179,000	+4.8%	357	38
Oct 2025	$1,216,000	–0.3%	403	41
Nov 2025	$1,290,000	+8.4%	427	40
Dec 2025	$1,235,000	+1.6%	381	41
Jan 2026	$1,110,000	–11.2%	133	61
Feb 2026	$1,197,000	–6.1%	369	60
Mar 2026	$1,260,000	+3.3%	401	42

The pattern is clear: strong activity from August through December, a seasonal January dip, and a solid rebound into February and March. The Shore's fundamentals — school zones, lifestyle, proximity to employment — continue to underpin demand.

At $1,260,000, the North Shore median sits approximately 21% above the wider Auckland REINZ median of $1,040,000. That premium has been consistent, and it reflects the enduring appeal of the area.

East Coast Bays — Mairangi Bay & Surrounds

This is the hyperlocal read — covering Mairangi Bay, Campbells Bay, Castor Bay, Murrays Bay, Rothesay Bay, and Windsor Park. It's the market I work in every day, and it's where the data tells its own distinct story.

Measure	March 2026	vs March 2025
Sales	27	29 (–6.9%)
Median price	$1,630,000	$1,700,000 (–4.1%)
Days to sell	44	39 (+5 days)
Total sales volume	$47.5M	$51.8M (–8.3%)

Let me unpack this, because the headline YoY number (–4.1%) requires context.

February was soft in the Bays. The median dropped to $1,270,000 — the lowest since February 2023 — off the back of a month dominated by smaller properties and entry-level stock transacting. March's bounce to $1,630,000 (+28.3% month-on-month) isn't a boom — it's the median correcting as larger family homes returned to the sales mix. This is exactly the kind of volatility you see in smaller sample sizes, which is why I always look at the rolling picture rather than any single month.

Over the last 12 months, the East Coast Bays median has averaged approximately $1,555,000, trading in a range from $1,270,000 to $1,740,000. That range is wider than the broader North Shore's, and it reflects the diversity of stock in these suburbs — from tidy 1970s three-bedrooms in Campbells Bay through to large renovated family homes on premium sites in Murrays Bay and Castor Bay.

East Coast Bays — Last 12 Months

Month	Median Price	YoY Change	Sales	Days to Sell
Apr 2025	$1,450,000	–22.0%	26	37
May 2025	$1,490,000	–0.7%	26	44
Jun 2025	$1,440,000	–17.7%	24	48
Jul 2025	$1,450,000	–8.8%	33	50
Aug 2025	$1,700,000	+32.8%	19	36
Sep 2025	$1,700,000	+3.0%	31	33
Oct 2025	$1,620,000	+13.3%	41	35
Nov 2025	$1,740,000	–8.4%	38	32
Dec 2025	$1,600,000	–3.6%	50	50
Jan 2026	$1,570,000	–15.1%	11	78
Feb 2026	$1,270,000	–20.6%	26	62
Mar 2026	$1,630,000	–4.1%	27	44

Two things jump out from this data.

First, sales volume has been remarkably consistent at 27–33 sales per month through the cooler months, spiking to 38–50 through spring and early summer. The Bays remain an active market if you're curious about how the Bays fare through the seasons, highly recommend this blog post.

December's 50 sales was the highest monthly figure in at least five years for this area — a strong signal that buyer interest is deep.

Second, the negative YoY medians through much of 2025 look more dramatic than they feel on the ground. The 2024 comparisons were elevated by a handful of premium sales, and the 2021–2022 period that sits three years back reflects the absolute peak. What matters is where the market is trading now relative to sustainable, post-correction values — and $1,550,000–$1,650,000 looks like a well-supported range for the Bays.

The East Coast Bays commands a premium of roughly 29% over the broader North Shore median. That gap reflects what you'd expect: school zoning (Rangitoto College, Campbells Bay Primary, Mairangi Bay Primary), walkable beach access, established tree-lined streets, and the lifestyle that attracts families from across Auckland and internationally.

Interest Rates — The Changed Landscape

Three months ago, the rate story was straightforward: the RBNZ was cutting, banks were passing it through, and buyers were feeling the benefit. That narrative has been upended.

Rate	Current Level	Context
OCR	2.25%	Held — but hawkish tone
1-year fixed (major banks)	~5.5–5.8%	Up ~20bps since Feb
2-year fixed	~5.3–5.6%	No longer dropping
RBNZ inflation forecast (Jun Q)	4.2%	Well above target
Next OCR decision	27 May 2026	Full MPS with new forecasts

The RBNZ held on 8 April, choosing to "look through" the temporary inflation spike rather than tighten into a weakening economy. That was the right call for now. But the Governor made it clear: if inflation expectations become unanchored, they will act decisively.

The bank economists are split on what happens next. ASB expects OCR hikes from September, reaching 3.25% by mid-2027. Infometrics is more aggressive, forecasting a peak of 4.5% by early 2028. Kiwibank, on the other hand, has cautioned that hiking into an already fragile economy would be reckless.

What does this mean for property? The window of easy rate-driven buyer enthusiasm is closing. Anyone who refixed their mortgage in late 2025 or early 2026 at 5.3–5.5% secured a genuine benefit. But the next wave of refixes will likely be at similar or slightly higher rates — and if the conflict persists, that could worsen.

The ceasefire announced between the US and Iran is encouraging, and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices should ease. But damaged infrastructure and lingering uncertainty mean things won't snap back to normal overnight. Even in a best-case scenario, a degree of oil price inflation is likely to persist.

What This All Means — An Honest Assessment

Let me put this together plainly.

The March numbers were strong. Auckland, the North Shore, and the East Coast Bays all showed solid activity, healthy volume, and pricing that is holding — or in the North Shore's case, gently firming year-on-year. This was a market finding its feet after a long correction.

The global situation introduces real uncertainty. Rising fuel costs, potential OCR hikes, and weaker consumer confidence will slow the momentum that was building. This isn't a prediction of a crash — it's an observation that the external environment has changed, and the property market is not immune to it.

Well-located, well-presented properties will continue to sell. Buyers on the North Shore and in the East Coast Bays are owner-occupiers and upgraders, not speculators. They're buying for school zones, lifestyle, and long-term value. That buyer profile doesn't disappear because petrol is expensive — but it does become more selective.

Pricing needs to be realistic. With stock at record highs and buyers more cautious, overpricing is the single biggest risk to a successful campaign. The properties that are achieving strong results are the ones priced to the evidence, presented immaculately, and marketed with a clear strategy. The ones sitting are the ones that are testing the market with aspirational numbers.

If you've been thinking about selling, don't wait for perfect clarity — it's not coming. Every market cycle has uncertainty. What matters is whether the fundamentals support a sale, and right now they do: buyer activity is solid, interest rates (while no longer falling) are still historically reasonable, and the East Coast Bays and North Shore remain among the most sought-after suburbs in the country.

The smart move isn't to panic about the headlines. It's to get accurate, evidence-based advice about where your specific property sits in the current market — and then make a decision from a position of knowledge, not anxiety.

Thinking about making a move? Let's have a conversation about what your property could achieve — and whether now is the right time for you. Get in touch today, and let's talk.

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